根据标准全球普氏能源资讯平台分析的一项新研究显示，明年有望成为印度石油需求好转的时机。
随着经济放缓、新车辆销售下滑和季风季节的洪涝而导致需求减弱，预计2019年日增长数量将仅为12万桶。标普全球普氏能源资讯预计，明年印度的石油日需求将增长17万桶。
预计明年经济增长将加快，因为印度储备银行正在降低利率，这也有望支持石油需求。 经济放缓对柴油的打击最大，促使炼油厂为其过剩供应在海外市场寻找买家。
其他重大举措也在所难免。印度政府计划推出6欧元等价物燃料，成立天然气交易所，并出售印度领先的国有炼油商巴拉特石油有限公司(Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd.)的多数股权。
预计今年的石油日需求量将增长12万桶，这将是自2013年以来最疲弱的增长速度。根据普氏分析的数据，该增长量远低于2011-2018年的日均20万桶。
根据石油计划和分析小组的数据，印度的柴油1月-9月消费量同比仅增长1.8％。
Facts全球能源顾问Senthil Kumaran表示，宏观经济因素对柴油的压力更大，因为柴油取决于制造业和工业部门。2019年季风降雨高于正常，使情况进一步恶化。 但是我们认为汽油（柴油）的故事还没有结束。 我们预计未来六个月柴油消耗量将逐步恢复。
Kumaran认为液化石油气（LPG）可能以丙烷或丁烷的形式进入市场，并呈现强劲增长，而喷气燃料则随着印度经济的改善而反弹。FGE预计明年的整体石油产品日需求量增长将会更高，达到18万桶，而普氏分析则为17万桶，这是因为每天的石油总消耗量估计接近500万桶。
原文如下：
India Could See Real Growth In Oil Demand Next Year
Next year is expected to be a turnaround for oil demand in India, according to a new study by S&P Global Platts Analytics.
With weakened demand caused by an economic slowdown, a slump in new vehicle sales, and flooding during monsoon season, the growth number is expected to come in at a meagre 120,000 b/d in 2019. S&P Global Platts expects India's oil demand to grow by 170,000 b/d next year.
Economic growth is expected to pick up next year, as the Reserve Bank of India is cutting interest rates, which is also expected to support oil demand. Diesel has been hardest hit by the slowdown, prompting refiners to search for buyers of their surplus supply in overseas markets.
Other big moves are in store. The government plans on moving ahead with introducing Euro 6 equivalent fuels, launching a gas exchange, and selling a majority stake in one of India's leading state refiners, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd.
The expectation that the country’s oil demand will grow by 120,000 b/d this year would be the weakest pace of growth since 2013. It's far below the average of 200,000 b/d seen over 2011-2018, according to Platts Analytics.
Consumption of diesel in India rose only 1.8 percent year on year over January-September, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
"Macroeconomic factors are weighing more on diesel as it is dependent on the manufacturing and industrial sector," said Senthil Kumaran, consultant at Facts Global Energy. "Higher-than-normal monsoon rains in 2019 further exacerbated the situation. But we think the story for gasoil (diesel) is not over yet. We expect a gradual recovery in diesel consumption in the next six months.”
Kumaran sees liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which could come to market in the form of propane or butane, seeing robust growth, and jet fuel seeing a rebound as India’s economy improves. FGE expects an even higher overall oil products demand growth next year — at 180,000 b/d versus Platts Analytics at 170,000 b/d — and that comes from an overall daily oil consumption estimated around nearly 5 million bbb/day.
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